The latest gallup poll of the American Presidential race, and Gallups comments, make interesting reading. Taken between Aug 28-30, including two days since the close of the Democratic National Convention, it finds Barack Obama with a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential contest, 48% to 42%. A week ago the race was about tied.
CBS news have just published a poll showing Obama 8% ahead of McCain, Rasmussen show Obama 6 points ahead, and HotlineFD 9 points ahead. I think it can safely be assumed that Obama has just experienced a substantial surge.
Gallup often records higher numbers earlier for Obama than other pollsters. Rasmussen and the pollsters usually show these higher numbers for Obama a few days later than gallup. I suspect that this pattern is because Gallup, unlike other pollsters, call cellphones as well as calling landlines to get peoples opinions. This means that Gallup immediately get through to cellphone users still at work or post work play, and record their opinions. These are predominately young Obama supporters (my 70 year old mum can’t use a mobile phone). Rasmussen and the other pollsters only get through to the younger cellphone users a few days later via their landlines when they catch them in, at which point these other pollsters start to record numbers similar to Gallup.
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